America Mineiro 2-1 Coritiba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.6
Over 2.5
40%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.54
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.66
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
51%
-2.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+1.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.5pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Coritiba EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -8%
1.32/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.16
+18% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 80%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
22.0 Crosses 16.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME America Mineiro
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Coritiba
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.00 xG 1.29
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
357 Passes 285
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.06.2024 Coritiba Coritiba 1-0 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
09.11.2023 America Mineiro America Mineiro 0-3 HT 0-2 Coritiba Coritiba BR1
09.07.2023 Coritiba Coritiba 3-1 HT 2-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR1
04.09.2022 America Mineiro America Mineiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR1
15.05.2022 Coritiba Coritiba 1-0 HT 1-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR1
28.09.2019 Coritiba Coritiba 2-1 HT 1-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME America Mineiro
2-1
AWAY Coritiba
1.26 xG 0.38
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 4
401 Passes 282
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 5
26 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH America Mineiro vs Coritiba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

America Mineiro squeezed past Coritiba 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had America Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, America Mineiro had 57% of the ball to Coritiba's 43%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 1.26 to 0.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Coritiba led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for America Mineiro and 1.67 for Coritiba.

What was the final score of America Mineiro vs Coritiba?

America Mineiro 2-1 Coritiba in the Brazil - Serie B on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for America Mineiro vs Coritiba?

Before kick-off our model rated a America Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split America Mineiro 49%, draw 28%, Coritiba 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (America Mineiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (America Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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