Samgurali 1-2 Dinamo Tbilisi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
39%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
39%
Away Win
39%
-0.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.5pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Samgurali EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Tbilisi EU Bookmakers 43%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -10%
1.17/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.35
-6% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Samgurali
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Dinamo Tbilisi
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.08.2024 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi 0-1 HT 0-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
20.04.2024 Samgurali Samgurali 3-1 HT 1-1 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi GUR
02.03.2024 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi 2-0 HT 2-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
29.10.2023 Samgurali Samgurali 0-2 HT 0-1 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi GUR
25.10.2023 Samgurali Samgurali 1-1 HT 1-0 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi GURCK
19.08.2023 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi 5-2 HT 2-1 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Samgurali
1-2
AWAY Dinamo Tbilisi
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Tbilisi edged past Samgurali 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 27% / 39%) promised a tight game; Dinamo Tbilisi found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Samgurali had 50% of the ball to Dinamo Tbilisi's 50%, shots finished 8-17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Tbilisi led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Samgurali and 1.83 for Dinamo Tbilisi.

What was the final score of Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi?

Samgurali 1-2 Dinamo Tbilisi in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Tbilisi win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Samgurali 34%, draw 27%, Dinamo Tbilisi 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Tbilisi) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Tbilisi) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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