Aston Villa U21 2-3 Newcastle United U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — INGPL2, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.81
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
3.17
Over 2.5
59%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.49
No
47%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
68%
-10.7pp
21%
Draw
17%
+3.8pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+6.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
28%
+12.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
72%
-12.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.7pp
47%
BTTS No
37%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa U21 EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United U21 EU Bookmakers 19%
+23% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +70% / +70%
2.49/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/0.92
+5% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / +150%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
444 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.1 Crosses 7.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa U21
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Newcastle United U21
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.50 xG 0.38
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
362 Passes 353
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.04.2024 Newcastle United U21 Newcastle United U21 0-1 HT 0-1 Aston Villa U21 Aston Villa U21 INGPL2-1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa U21
2-3
AWAY Newcastle United U21
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
519 Passes 268
91% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Crosses 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aston Villa U21 vs Newcastle United U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United U21 edged past Aston Villa U21 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Aston Villa U21 carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Aston Villa U21 had 63% of the ball to Newcastle United U21's 37%, shots finished 13-6.

What was the final score of Aston Villa U21 vs Newcastle United U21?

Aston Villa U21 2-3 Newcastle United U21 in the INGPL2 on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa U21 vs Newcastle United U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa U21 57%, draw 21%, Newcastle United U21 22%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aston Villa U21) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aston Villa U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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