Liepaja 2-1 Auda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 5 Oct 2024

Liepaja
2-1 HT 1-0
Auda
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.75
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
44%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
21%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
23%
+3.2pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.7pp
44%
Away Win
50%
-6.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.2pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liepaja EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Auda EU Bookmakers 55%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
0.98/2.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/0.72
-20% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +114%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
224 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 75%
7.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.2
13.0 Crosses 19.4
3.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liepaja
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Auda
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.17 xG 1.40
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
215 Passes 431
68% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.07.2024 Auda Auda 2-0 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
19.05.2024 Auda Auda 1-1 HT 1-1 Liepaja Liepaja LET
09.04.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 1-0 HT 1-0 Auda Auda LET
21.10.2023 Liepaja Liepaja 1-1 HT 0-0 Auda Auda LET
30.07.2023 Auda Auda 1-1 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
07.05.2023 Auda Auda 0-4 HT 0-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liepaja
2-1
AWAY Auda
1.43 xG 0.55
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
234 Passes 445
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
9 Box Touches 30
10 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Liepaja vs Auda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liepaja edged past Auda 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Auda at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Liepaja had 36% of the ball to Auda's 64%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 1.43 to 0.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liepaja had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Liepaja and 0.83 for Auda.

What was the final score of Liepaja vs Auda?

Liepaja 2-1 Auda in the Latvia - Virsliga on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liepaja vs Auda?

Before kick-off our model rated an Auda win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Liepaja 26%, draw 30%, Auda 44%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Auda) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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