Arendal 3-1 Vard Haugesund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - 2nd Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.38
Over 2.5
50%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
5.09
2-3 Goals
33%
1.96
4-5 Goals
22%
2.74
6+ Goals
16%
7.07
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.09 — our 29% vs market 15.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
21%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-7.8pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.6pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+6.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
38%
+12.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
62%
-12.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.6pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arendal EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Vard Haugesund EU Bookmakers 25%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +13%
1.87/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.85
-12% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
390 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arendal
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Vard Haugesund
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
06.04.2024 Vard Haugesund Vard Haugesund 0-1 HT 0-0 Arendal Arendal NOR3
07.10.2023 Arendal Arendal 2-0 HT 0-0 Vard Haugesund Vard Haugesund NOR3
20.05.2023 Vard Haugesund Vard Haugesund 3-0 HT 1-0 Arendal Arendal NOR3
08.10.2022 Vard Haugesund Vard Haugesund 0-2 HT 0-2 Arendal Arendal NOR3
04.06.2022 Arendal Arendal 3-1 HT 1-0 Vard Haugesund Vard Haugesund NOR3
30.10.2021 Arendal Arendal 1-0 HT 0-0 Vard Haugesund Vard Haugesund NOR3
POST-MATCH Arendal vs Vard Haugesund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arendal beat Vard Haugesund 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Arendal as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arendal had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Arendal and 0.67 for Vard Haugesund.

What was the final score of Arendal vs Vard Haugesund?

Arendal 3-1 Vard Haugesund in the Norway - 2nd Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arendal vs Vard Haugesund?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arendal win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Arendal 49%, draw 24%, Vard Haugesund 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arendal) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arendal)
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