FK Rodina Moskva 1-1 Arsenal Tula — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.48
Over 2.5
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.4pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.1pp
33%
Away Win
33%
-0.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-2.7pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+2.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.5pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Rodina Moskva EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Tula EU Bookmakers 37%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
0.64/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/0.54
-40% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +109%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
277 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Rodina Moskva
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Arsenal Tula
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
04.05.2024 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva 1-1 HT 0-0 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS1
05.11.2023 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 1-0 HT 0-0 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUS1
19.10.2023 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 1-2 HT 1-0 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUK
12.03.2023 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 2-3 HT 1-2 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Rodina Moskva
1-1
AWAY Arsenal Tula
51% Ball Possession 49%
5 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FK Rodina Moskva vs Arsenal Tula
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Rodina Moskva and Arsenal Tula shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, FK Rodina Moskva had 51% of the ball to Arsenal Tula's 49%, shots finished 5-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, FK Rodina Moskva had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FK Rodina Moskva and 1.25 for Arsenal Tula.

What was the final score of FK Rodina Moskva vs Arsenal Tula?

FK Rodina Moskva 1-1 Arsenal Tula in the Russia - FNL on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Rodina Moskva vs Arsenal Tula?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Rodina Moskva win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split FK Rodina Moskva 37%, draw 30%, Arsenal Tula 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (FK Rodina Moskva), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FK Rodina Moskva) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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