Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 5 Oct 2024

Zenit St. Petersburg
1-0 HT 0-0
FK Orenburg
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Russia - Premier League – 2024/2025

Zenit St. Petersburg vs FK Orenburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.28
Draw
20%
5.15
Away
18%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.61
Over 2.5
51%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
5.89
2-3 Goals
41%
2.06
4-5 Goals
24%
2.59
6+ Goals
10%
5.88
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.89 — our 25% vs market 12.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.41
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
24.45
X/1
20%
3.52
X/2
6%
23.6
X/X
9%
9.18
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
6%
17.1
2/X
5%
24.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
74%
-11.5pp
20%
Draw
16%
+3.4pp
18%
Away Win
10%
+8.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
35%
+14.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
65%
-14.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.9pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Zenit St. Petersburg v FK Orenburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 12%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -10%
2.19/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.93
+30% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +57% / -21%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
443 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 73%
34.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
21.3 Crosses 16.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0

Zenit St. Petersburg vs FK Orenburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg
4W-1D-1L
AWAY FK Orenburg
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.14 xG 1.16
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
500 Passes 271
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
34 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
21.04.2024 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
30.09.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 3-1 HT 3-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
20.05.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-2 HT 1-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
11.09.2022 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 8-0 HT 5-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
15.07.2020 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 4-1 HT 1-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
28.07.2019 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS

Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0 FK Orenburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg
1-0
AWAY FK Orenburg
3.26 xG 0.23
64% Ball Possession 36%
32 Total Shots 4
12 Shots on Target 1
16 Corners 1
513 Passes 276
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
63 Box Touches 7
35 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Zenit St. Petersburg vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zenit St. Petersburg squeezed past FK Orenburg 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Zenit St. Petersburg as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Zenit St. Petersburg had 64% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 36%, shots finished 32-4, expected goals 3.26 to 0.23 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Zenit St. Petersburg's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zenit St. Petersburg had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Zenit St. Petersburg and 1.00 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of Zenit St. Petersburg vs FK Orenburg?

Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Premier League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zenit St. Petersburg vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zenit St. Petersburg win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Zenit St. Petersburg 62%, draw 20%, FK Orenburg 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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