Spartak Moskova 3-0 Rostov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.82
2-3 Goals
44%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.21
6+ Goals
10%
10.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.44
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.3
X/1
22%
4.38
X/2
12%
8.28
X/X
9%
5.07
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.15
2/2
10%
5.96
2/X
7%
13.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-4.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.2pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Rostov EU Bookmakers 28%
-10% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -13%
1.27/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.46
-7% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
355 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 74%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
18.5 Crosses 18.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Moskova
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Rostov
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.38 xG 1.23
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
333 Passes 282
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.04.2024 Rostov Rostov 1-5 HT 1-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
07.02.2024 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 0-3 HT 0-2 Rostov Rostov HAZ
12.11.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 2-1 HT 2-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
29.04.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 1-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
11.09.2022 Rostov Rostov 4-2 HT 2-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
24.04.2022 Rostov Rostov 3-2 HT 1-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Moskova
3-0
AWAY Rostov
2.11 xG 0.94
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 13
313 Passes 240
75% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 33
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Spartak Moskova vs Rostov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Moskova cruised past Rostov 3-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Spartak Moskova as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Spartak Moskova had 54% of the ball to Rostov's 46%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 2.11 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rostov led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Spartak Moskova and 2.17 for Rostov.

What was the final score of Spartak Moskova vs Rostov?

Spartak Moskova 3-0 Rostov in the Russia - Premier League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Moskova vs Rostov?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Spartak Moskova 46%, draw 26%, Rostov 29%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spartak Moskova), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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