Macara 3-2 Aucas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 5 Oct 2025

Macara
3-2 HT 0-2
Aucas
📅05/10/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
40%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-1.7pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.8pp
40%
Away Win
34%
+5.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.3pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macara EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Aucas EU Bookmakers 38%
-9% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +11%
1.17/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.18
-22% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +24%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
291 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 78%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
18.8 Crosses 17.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macara
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Aucas
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.34 xG 1.51
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
212 Passes 269
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.07.2025 Aucas Aucas 1-4 HT 0-1 Macara Macara EKV1
09.03.2025 Macara Macara 1-1 HT 0-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
20.10.2024 Aucas Aucas 3-1 HT 1-1 Macara Macara EKV1
28.04.2024 Macara Macara 0-2 HT 0-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
21.08.2022 Macara Macara 1-1 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
12.04.2022 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 1-0 Macara Macara EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macara
3-2
AWAY Aucas
2.32 xG 0.69
56% Ball Possession 44%
21 Total Shots 9
11 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
353 Passes 246
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
31 Box Touches 12
11 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Macara vs Aucas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macara nicked a narrow win over Aucas 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Macara found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Macara had 56% of the ball to Aucas's 44%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 2.32 to 0.69 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Macara's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aucas led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Macara and 1.67 for Aucas.

What was the final score of Macara vs Aucas?

Macara 3-2 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macara vs Aucas?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Macara 35%, draw 25%, Aucas 40%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aucas) ✗ Under 2.5
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