Macara vs Aucas Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Macara v Aucas — Team-Based Signals
Macara vs Aucas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-0
Aucas
EKV1
2-0
HT 1-0
Macara
EKV1
Macara 3-2 Aucas — Actual Match Statistics
Macara nicked a narrow win over Aucas 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Macara found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Macara had 56% of the ball to Aucas's 44%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 2.32 to 0.69 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Macara's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aucas led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Macara and 1.67 for Aucas.
What was the final score of Macara vs Aucas?
Macara 3-2 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Macara vs Aucas?
Before kick-off our model rated an Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Macara 35%, draw 25%, Aucas 40%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.