Aucas 1-4 Macara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 6 Jul 2025

Aucas
1-4 HT 0-1
Macara
📅06/07/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-5.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.4pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aucas EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Macara EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.75/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.22
+14% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +14%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 218 · 72%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
20.1 Crosses 14.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aucas
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Macara
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.56 xG 1.49
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
283 Passes 203
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2025 Macara Macara 1-1 HT 0-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
20.10.2024 Aucas Aucas 3-1 HT 1-1 Macara Macara EKV1
28.04.2024 Macara Macara 0-2 HT 0-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
21.08.2022 Macara Macara 1-1 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
12.04.2022 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 1-0 Macara Macara EKV1
20.11.2021 Aucas Aucas 2-4 HT 2-3 Macara Macara EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aucas
1-4
AWAY Macara
0.83 xG 1.35
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 3
343 Passes 183
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
13 Box Touches 13
28 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aucas vs Macara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macara cruised past Aucas 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Aucas at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aucas had 62% of the ball to Macara's 38%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.83 to 1.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aucas had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Aucas and 1.17 for Macara.

What was the final score of Aucas vs Macara?

Aucas 1-4 Macara in the Ecuador - Premier on 06/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aucas vs Macara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Aucas 52%, draw 25%, Macara 23%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aucas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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