El Nacional vs Manta Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
El Nacional v Manta — Team-Based Signals
El Nacional vs Manta Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
El Nacional
EKV2
1-0
HT 0-0
Manta
EKV2
0-1
HT 0-1
El Nacional
EKV2
1-0
HT 1-0
Manta
EKV2
1-2
HT 0-1
Manta
EKV1
El Nacional 1-0 Manta — Actual Match Statistics
El Nacional squeezed past Manta 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had El Nacional as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, El Nacional had 54% of the ball to Manta's 46%, shots finished 24-4, expected goals 3.01 to 0.13 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold El Nacional's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for El Nacional and 1.00 for Manta.
What was the final score of El Nacional vs Manta?
El Nacional 1-0 Manta in the Ecuador - Premier on 06/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Manta?
Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 45%, draw 24%, Manta 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Nacional), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.