Deportivo Pasto 3-3 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
25%
2.94
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
Over 2.5
38%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+4.9pp
25%
Draw
30%
-5.0pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.3pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 40%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
0.93/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.19
+8% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +23%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
276 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 79%
13.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
18.6 Crosses 18.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Pasto
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.03 xG 0.82
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
274 Passes 302
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
16.04.2025 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
30.09.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
16.03.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-1 HT 1-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
22.07.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-1 HT 1-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
05.06.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
02.06.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Pasto
3-3
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
0.44 xG 2.20
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 1
248 Passes 377
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
9 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Pasto and Alianza Petrolera couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo Pasto had 41% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 59%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.44 to 2.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Petrolera led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Deportivo Pasto and 0.67 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Petrolera?

Deportivo Pasto 3-3 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Pasto win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Pasto 39%, draw 25%, Alianza Petrolera 36%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Pasto) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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