FCSB 1-0 Universitatea Craiova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Romania - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.14
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
13.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 32% vs market 25.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.5pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.0pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FCSB EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Universitatea Craiova EU Bookmakers 32%
+15% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +1%
1.28/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.06
+26% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
302 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 81%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
12.6 Crosses 17.7
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FCSB
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Universitatea Craiova
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.05 xG 1.05
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
331 Passes 305
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.05.2025 FCSB FCSB 1-0 HT 1-0 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova ROM
13.04.2025 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 0-0 HT 0-0 FCSB FCSB ROM
09.03.2025 FCSB FCSB 1-0 HT 1-0 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova ROM
18.12.2024 FCSB FCSB 0-2 HT 0-1 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova ROMK
03.11.2024 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 1-1 HT 0-1 FCSB FCSB ROM
06.05.2024 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 2-0 HT 1-0 FCSB FCSB ROM
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FCSB
1-0
AWAY Universitatea Craiova
2.32 xG 1.11
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 1
220 Passes 340
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH FCSB vs Universitatea Craiova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FCSB squeezed past Universitatea Craiova 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FCSB as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, FCSB had 42% of the ball to Universitatea Craiova's 58%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 2.32 to 1.11 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold FCSB's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for FCSB and 0.83 for Universitatea Craiova.

What was the final score of FCSB vs Universitatea Craiova?

FCSB 1-0 Universitatea Craiova in the Romania - 1st Division on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FCSB vs Universitatea Craiova?

Before kick-off our model rated a FCSB win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split FCSB 44%, draw 27%, Universitatea Craiova 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FCSB), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FCSB) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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ROM More Romania - 1st Division
5 Oct 2025
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