Sokol Saratov 1-1 Arsenal Tula — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.99
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
42%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
Over 2.5
44%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.16
No
49%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
22%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-0.5pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.2pp
42%
Away Win
39%
+2.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
42%
+8.5pp
49%
BTTS No
58%
-8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sokol Saratov EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Tula EU Bookmakers 43%
-5% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -17%
0.67/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.03
-39% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
234 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sokol Saratov
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Arsenal Tula
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
38% Ball Possession 62%
5 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
06.04.2025 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 1-0 HT 1-0 Sokol Saratov Sokol Saratov RUS1
02.11.2024 Sokol Saratov Sokol Saratov 1-0 HT 1-0 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS1
13.11.2023 Sokol Saratov Sokol Saratov 0-3 HT 0-2 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS1
08.10.2023 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 3-0 HT 3-0 Sokol Saratov Sokol Saratov RUS1
28.09.2015 Sokol Saratov Sokol Saratov 1-1 HT 0-0 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sokol Saratov
1-1
AWAY Arsenal Tula
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sokol Saratov vs Arsenal Tula
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sokol Saratov and Arsenal Tula couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal Tula at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Sokol Saratov had 40% of the ball to Arsenal Tula's 60%, shots finished 11-13.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Arsenal Tula led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Sokol Saratov and 1.60 for Arsenal Tula.

What was the final score of Sokol Saratov vs Arsenal Tula?

Sokol Saratov 1-1 Arsenal Tula in the Russia - FNL on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sokol Saratov vs Arsenal Tula?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal Tula win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sokol Saratov 29%, draw 29%, Arsenal Tula 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Arsenal Tula) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal Tula) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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