Torpedo Moscow 1-4 Chernomorets — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
+1.3pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.5pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.5pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Torpedo Moscow EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Chernomorets EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.40/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.11
+12% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Torpedo Moscow
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Chernomorets
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
01.03.2025 Chernomorets Chernomorets 2-0 HT 1-0 Torpedo Moscow Torpedo Moscow RUS1
25.08.2024 Torpedo Moscow Torpedo Moscow 1-1 HT 0-0 Chernomorets Chernomorets RUS1
04.05.2024 Chernomorets Chernomorets 1-2 HT 0-2 Torpedo Moscow Torpedo Moscow RUS1
30.07.2023 Torpedo Moscow Torpedo Moscow 1-1 HT 0-1 Chernomorets Chernomorets RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Torpedo Moscow
1-4
AWAY Chernomorets
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Torpedo Moscow vs Chernomorets
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chernomorets ran out comfortable winners over Torpedo Moscow 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Torpedo Moscow at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Torpedo Moscow had 50% of the ball to Chernomorets's 50%, shots finished 17-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Torpedo Moscow and 1.25 for Chernomorets.

What was the final score of Torpedo Moscow vs Chernomorets?

Torpedo Moscow 1-4 Chernomorets in the Russia - FNL on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Torpedo Moscow vs Chernomorets?

Before kick-off our model rated a Torpedo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Torpedo Moscow 47%, draw 26%, Chernomorets 27%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Torpedo Moscow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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