Buriram United 2-2 BG Pathum United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
70%
1.34
Draw
18%
4.62
Away
12%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
Over 2.5
55%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
47%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
4%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
70%
+0.1pp
18%
Draw
18%
-0.1pp
12%
Away Win
12%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.4pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Buriram United EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 15%
-4% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +45% / +45%
1.93/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.52
+34% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +90% / +23%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
380 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 81%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.4
23.9 Crosses 13.2
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Buriram United
1W-4D-1L
AWAY BG Pathum United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.03 xG 1.08
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
330 Passes 342
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2025 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 2-2 HT 2-2 Buriram United Buriram United AFCAKŞ
19.07.2025 Buriram United Buriram United 1-1 HT 1-1 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United HAZ
12.04.2025 Buriram United Buriram United 1-2 HT 1-1 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
29.12.2024 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 0-2 HT 0-0 Buriram United Buriram United TAY
03.04.2024 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 1-1 HT 0-1 Buriram United Buriram United TAY
29.10.2023 Buriram United Buriram United 0-0 HT 0-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Buriram United
2-2
AWAY BG Pathum United
3.20 xG 0.76
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
392 Passes 201
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
29 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Buriram United vs BG Pathum United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Buriram United and BG Pathum United shared the points in a 2-2 draw.

This one beat our numbers. Buriram United carried 70% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Buriram United had 63% of the ball to BG Pathum United's 37%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 3.20 to 0.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Buriram United and 1.00 for BG Pathum United.

What was the final score of Buriram United vs BG Pathum United?

Buriram United 2-2 BG Pathum United in the Thailand - 1st Division on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Buriram United vs BG Pathum United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Buriram United win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Buriram United 70%, draw 18%, BG Pathum United 12%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Buriram United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Buriram United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
TAY More Thailand - 1st Division
5 Oct 2025
14:00 Bangkok United vs Nakhon Ratchasima Analysis →
14:30 Prachuap vs Ratchaburi Analysis →