Mafra U23 1-1 Portimonense U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 5 Nov 2024

📅05/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
23%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.95
Over 2.5
44%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
3%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
47%
+2.3pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
23%
Away Win
28%
-5.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.7pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mafra U23 EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Portimonense U23 EU Bookmakers 32%
-62% / -62% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/2.37
-46% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -28%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
286 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mafra U23
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Portimonense U23
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.08.2024 Portimonense U23 Portimonense U23 1-0 Mafra U23 Mafra U23 UŞGB
15.04.2024 Mafra U23 Mafra U23 1-2 HT 0-1 Portimonense U23 Portimonense U23 PORU23
13.02.2024 Portimonense U23 Portimonense U23 2-0 Mafra U23 Mafra U23 PORU23
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mafra U23
1-1
AWAY Portimonense U23
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mafra U23 vs Portimonense U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mafra U23 and Portimonense U23 couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Mafra U23 at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Mafra U23 had 59% of the ball to Portimonense U23's 41%, shots finished 11-9.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Portimonense U23 led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Mafra U23 and 1.67 for Portimonense U23.

What was the final score of Mafra U23 vs Portimonense U23?

Mafra U23 1-1 Portimonense U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 05/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mafra U23 vs Portimonense U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mafra U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Mafra U23 49%, draw 28%, Portimonense U23 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Mafra U23), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mafra U23) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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UŞGB More Portugal - U23 National Championship
5 Nov 2024
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