Cacereno 1-3 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 5 Dec 2024

📅05/12/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
12.23
Draw
20%
7.78
Away
60%
1.1
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
3.17
Over 2.5
49%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.29
No
59%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
19%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
36%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
5%
+14.8pp
20%
Draw
9%
+10.5pp
60%
Away Win
85%
-25.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
28%
+22.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
72%
-22.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.0pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cacereno EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 91%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -10%
0.98/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.43/0.72
+73% / +142% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +12%
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
270 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 474 · 84%
13.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.3
19.5 Crosses 21.8
3.1 Yellow Cards 1.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cacereno
1-3
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.56 xG 2.92
29% Ball Possession 71%
5 Total Shots 28
2 Shots on Target 13
1 Corners 7
154 Passes 535
60% Pass Accuracy 88%
5 Box Touches 45
6 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cacereno vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid got the better of Cacereno 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cacereno had 29% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 71%, shots finished 5-28, expected goals 0.56 to 2.92.

What was the final score of Cacereno vs Atletico Madrid?

Cacereno 1-3 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 05/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cacereno vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Cacereno 20%, draw 20%, Atletico Madrid 60%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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