Ponferradina 1-1 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 5 Dec 2024

📅05/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.38
Draw
35%
3.11
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
38%
-6.5pp
35%
Draw
29%
+6.3pp
33%
Away Win
33%
+0.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponferradina EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 37%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +43% / +43%
1.65/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/0.61
+41% / +76% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +100%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
336 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.0 Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponferradina
2W-0D-2L
AWAY CD Castellon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.40 xG 2.02
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
242 Passes 340
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 23
0 Yellow Cards 3
15.05.2021 CD Castellon CD Castellon 0-2 HT 0-1 Ponferradina Ponferradina İS2
12.09.2020 Ponferradina Ponferradina 1-2 HT 1-1 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
03.06.2007 CD Castellon CD Castellon 4-0 HT 1-0 Ponferradina Ponferradina İS2
07.01.2007 Ponferradina Ponferradina 1-0 HT 0-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponferradina
1-1
AWAY CD Castellon
1.16 xG 0.91
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
313 Passes 387
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 29
34 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ponferradina vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ponferradina and CD Castellon couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 35% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Ponferradina had 46% of the ball to CD Castellon's 54%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 1.16 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ponferradina and 1.50 for CD Castellon.

What was the final score of Ponferradina vs CD Castellon?

Ponferradina 1-1 CD Castellon in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 05/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponferradina vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Ponferradina 32%, draw 35%, CD Castellon 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Draw), Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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