Ceuta 2-3 Osasuna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 5 Dec 2024

Ceuta
2-3 HT 1-0
Osasuna
📅05/12/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Spain - Copa del Rey – 2024/2025

Ceuta vs Osasuna Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.13
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
52%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
34%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
21%
+1.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
52%
Away Win
55%
-3.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.2pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ceuta v Osasuna — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceuta EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Osasuna EU Bookmakers 60%
+65% / +65% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.99/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.39/0.94
+98% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -4%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
264 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 48.2
– Crosses 39.7
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.9

Ceuta 2-3 Osasuna — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceuta
2-3
AWAY Osasuna
0.82 xG 1.93
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
237 Passes 355
71% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ceuta vs Osasuna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osasuna squeezed past Ceuta 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Osasuna as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Ceuta had 44% of the ball to Osasuna's 56%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.82 to 1.93.

What was the final score of Ceuta vs Osasuna?

Ceuta 2-3 Osasuna in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 05/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceuta vs Osasuna?

Before kick-off our model rated an Osasuna win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Ceuta 22%, draw 26%, Osasuna 52%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Osasuna) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Osasuna) ✗ BTTS No
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