Marbella 1-0 Burgos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 5 Dec 2024

📅05/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.59
Over 2.5
45%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+1.5pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.6pp
41%
Away Win
41%
+0.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.3pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marbella EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Burgos EU Bookmakers 45%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +28% / +28%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +88%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
295 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marbella
1-0
AWAY Burgos
0.95 xG 0.19
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
383 Passes 529
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 4
20 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Marbella vs Burgos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marbella edged past Burgos 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Burgos at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Marbella had 44% of the ball to Burgos's 56%, shots finished 7-4, expected goals 0.95 to 0.19.

What was the final score of Marbella vs Burgos?

Marbella 1-0 Burgos in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 05/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marbella vs Burgos?

Before kick-off our model rated an Burgos win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Marbella 31%, draw 28%, Burgos 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Burgos) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Burgos) ✓ Under 2.5
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