Sydney 3-1 Kaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFCŞL2, 5 Dec 2024

Sydney
3-1 HT 2-0
Kaya
📅05/12/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.28
Draw
22%
5.71
Away
19%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
3.94
Over 2.5
60%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.56
No
51%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
9.41
2-3 Goals EV+ ✗
47%
2.47
4-5 Goals
26%
2.3
6+ Goals
9%
3.49
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 2.47 — our 47% vs market 33.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
15%
2/2
6%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
74%
-15.0pp
22%
Draw
15%
+7.3pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+7.7pp
40%
Under 2.5
22%
+18.3pp
60%
Over 2.5
78%
-18.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.6pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sydney EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Kaya EU Bookmakers 14%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +39% / +39%
5.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.98
+98% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +27%
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
464 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sydney
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Kaya
4.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
4.14 xG 0.49
64% Ball Possession 36%
22 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
489 Passes 184
85% Pass Accuracy 67%
55 Box Touches 12
33 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
03.10.2024 Kaya Kaya 1-4 HT 1-1 Sydney Sydney AFCŞL2
08.03.2022 Sydney Sydney 5-0 HT 1-0 Kaya Kaya AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sydney
3-1
AWAY Kaya
1.61 xG 1.57
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
500 Passes 235
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 18
11 Crosses 16
POST-MATCH Sydney vs Kaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sydney beat Kaya 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sydney as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sydney had 63% of the ball to Kaya's 37%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.61 to 1.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sydney had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 4.50 goals for Sydney and 0.50 for Kaya.

What was the final score of Sydney vs Kaya?

Sydney 3-1 Kaya in the AFCŞL2 on 05/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sydney vs Kaya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sydney win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Sydney 59%, draw 22%, Kaya 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sydney), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sydney) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AFCŞL2 More AFCŞL2
5 Dec 2024
11:00 Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Eastern Analysis →
13:00 Dynamic Herb Cebu vs Selangor FA Analysis →
13:00 Muang Thong United vs Jeonbuk Motors Analysis →
15:00 Lion City Sailors FC vs Thai Port FC Analysis →
15:00 Persib Bandung vs Zhejiang G. FC Analysis →