Harrogate Town 3-1 Doncaster Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.03
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.73
6+ Goals
9%
16.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 30% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.58
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
15%
5.23
X/2
14%
5.57
X/X
11%
4.42
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
13%
3.91
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+1.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
33%
Away Win
35%
-1.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Doncaster Rovers EU Bookmakers 38%
-6% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -14%
1.44/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/0.94
+1% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
267 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 64%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
18.9 Crosses 14.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Harrogate Town
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Doncaster Rovers
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.20 xG 0.80
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
298 Passes 275
67% Pass Accuracy 62%
27 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
05.08.2023 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 0-1 HT 0-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
15.04.2023 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 2-2 HT 0-1 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
07.03.2023 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 0-2 HT 0-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Harrogate Town
3-1
AWAY Doncaster Rovers
1.00 xG 0.86
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
276 Passes 349
70% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Harrogate Town vs Doncaster Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Harrogate Town saw off Doncaster Rovers 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Harrogate Town made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Harrogate Town had 46% of the ball to Doncaster Rovers's 54%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.00 to 0.86.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Harrogate Town had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Harrogate Town and 0.67 for Doncaster Rovers.

What was the final score of Harrogate Town vs Doncaster Rovers?

Harrogate Town 3-1 Doncaster Rovers in the England - 2nd Division on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Harrogate Town vs Doncaster Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Harrogate Town win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Harrogate Town 39%, draw 28%, Doncaster Rovers 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Harrogate Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Harrogate Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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