Swindon Town 2-2 Colchester — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 6 Jan 2024

Swindon Town
2-2 HT 2-1
Colchester
📅06/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Swindon Town vs Colchester Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.12
2-3 Goals
39%
1.94
4-5 Goals
26%
2.67
6+ Goals
12%
6.74
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.79
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
19%
5.04
X/2
9%
6.79
X/X
12%
5.88
2/1
7%
21.75
2/2
12%
4.19
2/X
6%
13.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.5 — our 10% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
-0.2pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-0.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.0pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Swindon Town v Colchester — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Colchester EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
1.39/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.49
+7% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
306 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
19.7 Crosses 16.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

Swindon Town vs Colchester Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swindon Town
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Colchester
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.27 xG 0.95
65% Ball Possession 35%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
416 Passes 171
82% Pass Accuracy 64%
24 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.11.2023 Colchester Colchester 3-1 HT 0-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
01.01.2023 Colchester Colchester 1-0 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
15.10.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
29.01.2022 Colchester Colchester 1-1 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
30.11.2021 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-2 HT 1-2 Colchester Colchester İNTK
25.09.2021 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Colchester Colchester İN2

Swindon Town 2-2 Colchester — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swindon Town
2-2
AWAY Colchester
1.21 xG 1.51
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
185 Passes 424
61% Pass Accuracy 77%
11 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Swindon Town vs Colchester
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swindon Town and Colchester couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Swindon Town at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Swindon Town had 36% of the ball to Colchester's 64%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 1.21 to 1.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Colchester led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Swindon Town and 1.17 for Colchester.

What was the final score of Swindon Town vs Colchester?

Swindon Town 2-2 Colchester in the England - 2nd Division on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swindon Town vs Colchester?

Before kick-off our model rated a Swindon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Swindon Town 45%, draw 25%, Colchester 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Swindon Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Swindon Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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