Ales 1-2 Paris FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.09
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
48%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.86
Over 2.5
54%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.99
No
50%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.02
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.59
6+ Goals
12%
15.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.59 — our 24% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
11%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
19%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
17%
+10.2pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.9pp
48%
Away Win
60%
-12.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
50%
-4.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
50%
+4.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
+3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
54%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ales EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Paris FC EU Bookmakers 64%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +67% / +79%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
243 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 430 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
Crosses 13.0
Yellow Cards 1.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ales
1-2
AWAY Paris FC
0.91 xG 1.26
46% Ball Possession 54%
5 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
272 Passes 354
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ales vs Paris FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paris FC edged past Ales 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Paris FC as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Ales had 46% of the ball to Paris FC's 54%, shots finished 5-8, expected goals 0.91 to 1.26.

What was the final score of Ales vs Paris FC?

Ales 1-2 Paris FC in the France - Cup on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ales vs Paris FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paris FC win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Ales 27%, draw 25%, Paris FC 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paris FC), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Paris FC) ✓ Over 2.5
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