Fabregues 1-4 Trelissac — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.13
Draw
30%
3.64
Away
46%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.86
Over 2.5
41%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
2.99
2-3 Goals
44%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.62
6+ Goals
8%
15.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 28% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
6%
X/2
20%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
21%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
21%
+3.5pp
30%
Draw
24%
+5.6pp
46%
Away Win
55%
-9.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
50%
+8.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
50%
-8.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.5pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fabregues EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Trelissac EU Bookmakers 59%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
252 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fabregues
1-4
AWAY Trelissac
0.27 xG 4.57
31% Ball Possession 69%
5 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
99 Passes 323
54% Pass Accuracy 77%
4 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fabregues vs Trelissac
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trelissac swept aside Fabregues 4-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Trelissac as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fabregues had 31% of the ball to Trelissac's 69%, shots finished 5-17, expected goals 0.27 to 4.57.

What was the final score of Fabregues vs Trelissac?

Fabregues 1-4 Trelissac in the France - Cup on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fabregues vs Trelissac?

Before kick-off our model rated an Trelissac win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Fabregues 24%, draw 30%, Trelissac 46%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Trelissac) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Trelissac) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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