Estrela U23 4-2 Vizela U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 6 Jan 2025

📅06/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
43%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.78
Over 2.5
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
5%
X/2
16%
X/X
16%
2/1
3%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-1.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.1pp
43%
Away Win
42%
+0.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.6pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela U23 EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Vizela U23 EU Bookmakers 46%
-43% / -43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-44% / -51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
258 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela U23
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Vizela U23
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
6 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.04.2024 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 2-3 HT 1-1 Vizela U23 Vizela U23 PORU23
30.01.2024 Vizela U23 Vizela U23 1-1 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 PORU23
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela U23
4-2
AWAY Vizela U23
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 8
8 Corners 5
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Estrela U23 vs Vizela U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estrela U23 saw off Vizela U23 4-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Vizela U23 at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Estrela U23 had 48% of the ball to Vizela U23's 52%, shots finished 8-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Vizela U23 led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Estrela U23 and 2.00 for Vizela U23.

What was the final score of Estrela U23 vs Vizela U23?

Estrela U23 4-2 Vizela U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 06/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela U23 vs Vizela U23?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vizela U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Estrela U23 29%, draw 28%, Vizela U23 43%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vizela U23) ✗ Under 2.5
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