Farense U23 2-1 Rio Ave U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 6 Jan 2025

📅06/01/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.66
No
43%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.0pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.3pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.4pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense U23 EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave U23 EU Bookmakers 33%
+42% / +42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
3.03/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.84
+60% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
312 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense U23
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Rio Ave U23
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.04.2024 Farense U23 Farense U23 1-2 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 PORU23
06.02.2024 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 6-2 Farense U23 Farense U23 PORU23
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense U23
2-1
AWAY Rio Ave U23
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 7
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Farense U23 vs Rio Ave U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farense U23 nicked a narrow win over Rio Ave U23 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Farense U23 as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Farense U23 had 48% of the ball to Rio Ave U23's 52%, shots finished 15-8.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Rio Ave U23 led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Farense U23 and 4.00 for Rio Ave U23.

What was the final score of Farense U23 vs Rio Ave U23?

Farense U23 2-1 Rio Ave U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 06/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense U23 vs Rio Ave U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Farense U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Farense U23 42%, draw 30%, Rio Ave U23 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Farense U23), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Farense U23) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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