Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melbourne City v Brisbane Roar — Team-Based Signals
Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
8-1
HT 3-0
Brisbane Roar
AVUS
Melbourne City 1-0 Brisbane Roar — Actual Match Statistics
Melbourne City edged past Brisbane Roar 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Melbourne City as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Melbourne City had 68% of the ball to Brisbane Roar's 32%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.71 to 0.37 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Melbourne City's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Melbourne City and 1.50 for Brisbane Roar.
What was the final score of Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar?
Melbourne City 1-0 Brisbane Roar in the Australia - A-League on 06/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City 53%, draw 24%, Brisbane Roar 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.