Sporting CP 1-2 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - League Cup, 6 Jan 2026

Sporting CP
1-2 HT 1-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
📅06/01/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Portugal - League Cup – 2025/2026

Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.34
Draw
16%
4.49
Away
13%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
3.66
2-3 Goals
44%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.1
6+ Goals
9%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.66 — our 23% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.6
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
7%
20.35
X/1
25%
3.75
X/2
5%
17.25
X/X
5%
6.74
2/1
8%
24.0
2/2
4%
15.55
2/X
5%
24.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Sporting CP win — 71% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
70%
+1.2pp
16%
Draw
19%
-2.9pp
13%
Away Win
11%
+1.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.6pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting CP v Vitoria Guimaraes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-8% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
410 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 78%
43.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
22.0 Crosses –
0.0 Yellow Cards –

Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.96 xG 0.87
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
458 Passes 283
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 12
15 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
23.12.2025 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-4 HT 0-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
17.05.2025 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
03.01.2025 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 4-4 HT 1-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
21.04.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
09.12.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-2 HT 1-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
24.04.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-2 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR

Sporting CP 1-2 Vitoria Guimaraes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
1-2
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.93 xG 1.60
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
342 Passes 282
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes squeezed past Sporting CP 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sporting CP at 71% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Sporting CP had 54% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 46%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.93 to 1.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Sporting CP and 1.33 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Sporting CP 1-2 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - League Cup on 06/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 71%, draw 16%, Vitoria Guimaraes 13%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Sporting CP), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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