Basel 2-1 Luzern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 6 Feb 2025

Basel
2-1 HT 1-1
Luzern
📅06/02/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.33
Over 2.5
53%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.85
2-3 Goals
42%
1.96
4-5 Goals
25%
2.84
6+ Goals
12%
7.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.22
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.35
X/1
12%
4.55
X/2
8%
9.07
X/X
9%
6.02
2/1
8%
20.05
2/2
9%
6.36
2/X
7%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-1.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
39%
+7.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
61%
-7.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.5pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Basel EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Luzern EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +8%
1.94/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.51
-3% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
368 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
20.1 Crosses 15.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Basel
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Luzern
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.84 xG 1.42
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 9
355 Passes 317
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.09.2024 Luzern Luzern 1-0 HT 0-0 Basel Basel İSV
05.05.2024 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
21.04.2024 Luzern Luzern 1-1 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
17.12.2023 Luzern Luzern 0-1 HT 0-0 Basel Basel İSV
28.09.2023 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
23.04.2023 Basel Basel 0-2 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Basel
2-1
AWAY Luzern
2.62 xG 1.70
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 24
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 9
292 Passes 363
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
34 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Basel vs Luzern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Basel nicked a narrow win over Luzern 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Basel as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Basel had 47% of the ball to Luzern's 53%, shots finished 10-24, expected goals 2.62 to 1.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Luzern led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Basel and 1.00 for Luzern.

What was the final score of Basel vs Luzern?

Basel 2-1 Luzern in the Switzerland - Super League on 06/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Basel vs Luzern?

Before kick-off our model rated a Basel win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Basel 51%, draw 25%, Luzern 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Basel), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Basel) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSV More Switzerland - Super League
6 Feb 2025
22:30 Winterthur vs Zürich Analysis →