Sebail FK 0-1 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Cup, 6 Feb 2025

📅06/02/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-4 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.91
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
58%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
31%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
37%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
14%
+3.6pp
24%
Draw
20%
+4.0pp
59%
Away Win
66%
-7.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.3pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sebail FK EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 70%
-32% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.43/0.64
-6% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +125% / +150%
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
242 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 460 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sebail FK
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Karabağ
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
23.11.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-3 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
14.09.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 2-1 HT 1-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
03.02.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 1-2 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
12.11.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 2-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
03.09.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 2-1 HT 2-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
13.05.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-3 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
POST-MATCH Sebail FK vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ squeezed past Sebail FK 1-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sebail FK and 2.33 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Sebail FK vs Karabağ?

Sebail FK 0-1 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Cup on 06/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sebail FK vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Sebail FK 18%, draw 24%, Karabağ 59%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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