Ebbsfleet United 2-1 AFC Fylde — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 6 Apr 2024

Ebbsfleet United
2-1 HT 1-0
AFC Fylde
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
England - National League – 2023/2024

Ebbsfleet United vs AFC Fylde Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
31%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.33
Over 2.5
58%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.55
No
43%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.88
2-3 Goals
43%
1.94
4-5 Goals
25%
2.8
6+ Goals
11%
7.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.2
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
13%
4.3
X/2 EV+ ✗
15%
9.13
X/X
8%
6.03
2/1
9%
20.5
2/2
10%
6.2
2/X
7%
14.35
Value flag · X/2 at 9.13 — our 15% vs market 7.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-7.2pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.9pp
31%
Away Win
23%
+8.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
39%
+3.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
61%
-3.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.5pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ebbsfleet United v AFC Fylde — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ebbsfleet United EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Fylde EU Bookmakers 26%
-17% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.26/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.59
-28% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
393 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.9

Ebbsfleet United vs AFC Fylde Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ebbsfleet United
0W-3D-3L
AWAY AFC Fylde
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.10.2023 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde 1-1 HT 0-1 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL
10.08.2019 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde 1-0 HT 1-0 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL
22.12.2018 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde 2-0 HT 1-0 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL
01.09.2018 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United 1-3 HT 0-0 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde İBSL
23.12.2017 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde 1-1 HT 0-0 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL
12.08.2017 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United 3-3 HT 2-3 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde İBSL

Ebbsfleet United 2-1 AFC Fylde — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ebbsfleet United
2-1
AWAY AFC Fylde
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ebbsfleet United vs AFC Fylde
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ebbsfleet United squeezed past AFC Fylde 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ebbsfleet United as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Ebbsfleet United had 59% of the ball to AFC Fylde's 41%, shots finished 11-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AFC Fylde led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ebbsfleet United and 1.83 for AFC Fylde.

What was the final score of Ebbsfleet United vs AFC Fylde?

Ebbsfleet United 2-1 AFC Fylde in the England - National League on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ebbsfleet United vs AFC Fylde?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ebbsfleet United win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Ebbsfleet United 46%, draw 23%, AFC Fylde 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ebbsfleet United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ebbsfleet United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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