Portsmouth 3-1 Shrewsbury — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.45
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
24%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.63
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.32
6+ Goals
9%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 29% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.79
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
18.0
X/1
17%
3.55
X/2
9%
13.3
X/X
7%
5.88
2/1
6%
23.15
2/2
10%
10.85
2/X
7%
18.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
64%
-11.5pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.1pp
24%
Away Win
14%
+9.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.0pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portsmouth EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Shrewsbury EU Bookmakers 18%
+2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.59/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.41
-3% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
328 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 68%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
23.2 Crosses 14.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portsmouth
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Shrewsbury
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.70 xG 0.57
68% Ball Possession 32%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
449 Passes 158
80% Pass Accuracy 60%
28 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
16.12.2023 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 0-3 HT 0-1 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
15.04.2023 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 1-1 HT 0-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
29.10.2022 Portsmouth Portsmouth 1-1 HT 1-1 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN1
22.02.2022 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 1-2 HT 1-1 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
17.08.2021 Portsmouth Portsmouth 1-0 HT 1-0 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN1
27.03.2021 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 1-2 HT 0-2 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portsmouth
3-1
AWAY Shrewsbury
1.59 xG 1.00
66% Ball Possession 34%
7 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
454 Passes 194
81% Pass Accuracy 67%
15 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portsmouth beat Shrewsbury 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Portsmouth as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Portsmouth had 66% of the ball to Shrewsbury's 34%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 1.59 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portsmouth had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Portsmouth and 0.67 for Shrewsbury.

What was the final score of Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury?

Portsmouth 3-1 Shrewsbury in the England - 1st Division on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portsmouth win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Portsmouth 53%, draw 23%, Shrewsbury 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portsmouth) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Portsmouth) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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