Reading 1-1 Lincoln City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
37%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.2
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.67
6+ Goals
9%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 30% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.67
1/2
8%
30.0
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
17%
5.45
X/2
14%
5.62
X/X
13%
4.45
2/1
5%
29.0
2/2
15%
3.84
2/X
6%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-0.5pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.4pp
37%
Away Win
35%
+1.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.7pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Reading EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Lincoln City EU Bookmakers 38%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +25%
1.28/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.07
-22% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +22%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
249 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 75%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
18.5 Crosses 15.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Reading
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Lincoln City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.85 xG 0.23
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 1
414 Passes 160
75% Pass Accuracy 56%
23 Box Touches 7
20 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.12.2023 Lincoln City Lincoln City 1-1 HT 1-0 Reading Reading İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Reading
1-1
AWAY Lincoln City
1.38 xG 0.25
65% Ball Possession 35%
11 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
437 Passes 181
82% Pass Accuracy 65%
27 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Reading vs Lincoln City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Reading and Lincoln City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 26% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Reading had 65% of the ball to Lincoln City's 35%, shots finished 11-4, expected goals 1.38 to 0.25.

What was the final score of Reading vs Lincoln City?

Reading 1-1 Lincoln City in the England - 1st Division on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Reading vs Lincoln City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Reading win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Reading 37%, draw 26%, Lincoln City 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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