Palermo 2-2 Sampdoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.0
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.11
6+ Goals
11%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.0 — our 28% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.86
1/2
8%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
20%
4.9
X/2
10%
6.98
X/X
10%
5.01
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
14%
4.69
2/X
8%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
-0.3pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.8pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.0pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palermo EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Sampdoria EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +18%
1.38/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.31
+16% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
348 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
23.6 Crosses 16.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palermo
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Sampdoria
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.54 xG 1.43
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
284 Passes 364
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 22
30 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.11.2023 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-0 HT 1-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
26.02.2017 Palermo Palermo 1-1 HT 1-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTA
02.10.2016 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-1 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTA
01.05.2016 Palermo Palermo 2-0 HT 1-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTA
20.12.2015 Sampdoria Sampdoria 2-0 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTA
25.01.2015 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-1 HT 1-0 Palermo Palermo İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palermo
2-2
AWAY Sampdoria
1.91 xG 0.78
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
299 Passes 348
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Palermo vs Sampdoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palermo and Sampdoria couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Palermo at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Palermo had 47% of the ball to Sampdoria's 53%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.91 to 0.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sampdoria led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Palermo and 1.00 for Sampdoria.

What was the final score of Palermo vs Sampdoria?

Palermo 2-2 Sampdoria in the Italy - Serie B on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palermo vs Sampdoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palermo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Palermo 45%, draw 23%, Sampdoria 32%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Palermo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Palermo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTB More Italy - Serie B
6 Apr 2024
15:00 Spezia vs Lecco Analysis →
15:00 Ternana vs Modena Analysis →
15:00 Brescia vs Pisa Analysis →
15:00 FeralpiSalo vs Cosenza Calcio Analysis →
15:00 Südtirol vs Parma Analysis →
17:15 Reggiana vs Cittadella Analysis →