Bastia 1-1 Dunkerque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.52
2-3 Goals
47%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.69
6+ Goals
9%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.94
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
16%
4.36
X/2
12%
6.95
X/X
11%
3.93
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
12%
5.65
2/X
8%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-2.7pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.0pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.1pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bastia EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 30%
-6% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +12%
1.32/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.44
-17% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
333 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 73%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
21.9 Crosses 15.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bastia
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Dunkerque
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.37 xG 0.63
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
274 Passes 334
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 11
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.12.2023 Dunkerque Dunkerque 0-5 HT 0-2 Bastia Bastia FR2
15.03.2022 Bastia Bastia 1-0 HT 1-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
02.10.2021 Dunkerque Dunkerque 2-0 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bastia
1-1
AWAY Dunkerque
0.76 xG 1.17
34% Ball Possession 66%
6 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
213 Passes 494
71% Pass Accuracy 83%
7 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bastia vs Dunkerque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bastia and Dunkerque couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Bastia at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bastia had 34% of the ball to Dunkerque's 66%, shots finished 6-10, expected goals 0.76 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Bastia had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Bastia and 0.67 for Dunkerque.

What was the final score of Bastia vs Dunkerque?

Bastia 1-1 Dunkerque in the France - Ligue 2 on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bastia vs Dunkerque?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bastia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Bastia 43%, draw 25%, Dunkerque 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bastia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bastia) ✓ Under 2.5
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