Caen 0-1 Bordeaux — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 6 Apr 2024

Caen
0-1 HT 0-1
Bordeaux
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2023/2024

Caen vs Bordeaux Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.26
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.61
6+ Goals
10%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 27% vs market 25.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.21
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
5%
12.9
X/1
17%
4.99
X/2
12%
6.28
X/X
11%
4.5
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
13%
4.43
2/X
10%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-0.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.3pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Caen v Bordeaux — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caen EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Bordeaux EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -12%
1.44/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.24
+23% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -21%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
305 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
20.1 Crosses 17.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6

Caen vs Bordeaux Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caen
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Bordeaux
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.94 xG 1.57
47% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
324 Passes 381
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.10.2023 Bordeaux Bordeaux 1-1 HT 1-1 Caen Caen FR2
06.05.2023 Bordeaux Bordeaux 1-0 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
10.01.2023 Caen Caen 2-2 HT 0-2 Bordeaux Bordeaux FR2
24.05.2019 Caen Caen 0-1 HT 0-1 Bordeaux Bordeaux FR1
11.11.2018 Bordeaux Bordeaux 0-0 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR1
16.01.2018 Bordeaux Bordeaux 0-2 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR1

Caen 0-1 Bordeaux — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caen
0-1
AWAY Bordeaux
0.94 xG 1.60
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
380 Passes 413
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
34 Box Touches 23
26 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Caen vs Bordeaux
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bordeaux squeezed past Caen 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Caen at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Caen had 49% of the ball to Bordeaux's 51%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 0.94 to 1.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bordeaux led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Caen and 0.83 for Bordeaux.

What was the final score of Caen vs Bordeaux?

Caen 0-1 Bordeaux in the France - Ligue 2 on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caen vs Bordeaux?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caen win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Caen 43%, draw 26%, Bordeaux 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Caen), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caen) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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