Saint-Etienne 1-0 Concarneau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
25%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.79
2-3 Goals
44%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.22
6+ Goals
8%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.79 — our 27% vs market 21.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.78
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
17.55
X/1
14%
3.61
X/2
11%
13.5
X/X
10%
5.93
2/1
11%
23.15
2/2
9%
10.9
2/X
9%
18.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
64%
-12.5pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.1pp
25%
Away Win
15%
+10.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.6pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saint-Etienne EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Concarneau EU Bookmakers 18%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.50/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.47
+1% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +40%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
396 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 75%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
20.7 Crosses 12.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saint-Etienne
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Concarneau
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.99 xG 0.41
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 5
411 Passes 489
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
31 Box Touches 11
18 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
23.09.2023 Concarneau Concarneau 0-1 HT 0-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saint-Etienne
1-0
AWAY Concarneau
1.61 xG 0.40
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
410 Passes 344
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Saint-Etienne vs Concarneau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saint-Etienne squeezed past Concarneau 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Saint-Etienne as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Saint-Etienne had 54% of the ball to Concarneau's 46%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.61 to 0.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Saint-Etienne's control.

What was the final score of Saint-Etienne vs Concarneau?

Saint-Etienne 1-0 Concarneau in the France - Ligue 2 on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saint-Etienne vs Concarneau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saint-Etienne win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Saint-Etienne 51%, draw 23%, Concarneau 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Saint-Etienne), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Saint-Etienne) ✓ BTTS No
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