Ceuta 1-0 Alcoyano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
25%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.56
Over 2.5
48%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.16
No
51%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.34
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
4.71
6+ Goals
10%
27.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-3.7pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.7pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+6.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
60%
-8.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
40%
+8.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.0pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceuta EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Alcoyano EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.79/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.12
+11% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +26%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
289 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceuta
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Alcoyano
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
60% Ball Possession 40%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.11.2024 Alcoyano Alcoyano 1-1 HT 0-1 Ceuta Ceuta İS3
12.05.2024 Alcoyano Alcoyano 3-1 HT 2-1 Ceuta Ceuta İS3
17.09.2023 Ceuta Ceuta 1-0 HT 1-0 Alcoyano Alcoyano İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceuta
1-0
AWAY Alcoyano
66% Ball Possession 34%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ceuta vs Alcoyano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceuta edged past Alcoyano 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ceuta as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Ceuta had 66% of the ball to Alcoyano's 34%, shots finished 12-10.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ceuta and 1.33 for Alcoyano.

What was the final score of Ceuta vs Alcoyano?

Ceuta 1-0 Alcoyano in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceuta vs Alcoyano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceuta win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Ceuta 50%, draw 25%, Alcoyano 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ceuta), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ceuta) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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