Spezia 2-0 Sampdoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.75
Over 2.5
52%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.9
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
3.88
6+ Goals
10%
17.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.88 — our 23% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.46
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.5
X/1
18%
4.28
X/2
13%
8.54
X/X
11%
4.68
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
8%
7.05
2/X
7%
15.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-4.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
53%
-5.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
47%
+5.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.4pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Sampdoria EU Bookmakers 26%
+0% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -7%
1.62/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.42
-5% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -18%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 76%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
25.6 Crosses 17.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Sampdoria
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.31 xG 0.77
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
305 Passes 295
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
14.12.2024 Sampdoria Sampdoria 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
20.04.2024 Spezia Spezia 0-0 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
24.11.2023 Sampdoria Sampdoria 2-1 HT 1-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
22.04.2023 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-1 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTA
17.09.2022 Spezia Spezia 2-1 HT 1-1 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTA
23.01.2022 Spezia Spezia 1-0 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
2-0
AWAY Sampdoria
2.02 xG 0.63
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
268 Passes 176
76% Pass Accuracy 65%
26 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Sampdoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia got the better of Sampdoria 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Spezia as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Spezia had 57% of the ball to Sampdoria's 43%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 2.02 to 0.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spezia had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Spezia and 0.67 for Sampdoria.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Sampdoria?

Spezia 2-0 Sampdoria in the Italy - Serie B on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Sampdoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Spezia 47%, draw 24%, Sampdoria 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spezia), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spezia) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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