Sibenik 4-1 Osijek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 6 Apr 2025

Sibenik
4-1 HT 2-0
Osijek
📅06/04/2025 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2024/2025

Sibenik vs Osijek Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.94
Draw
33%
3.11
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.56
Over 2.5
37%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.32
2-3 Goals
36%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
4.74
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.32 — our 38% vs market 35.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
12%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-1.3pp
33%
Draw
29%
+4.0pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-2.7pp
63%
Under 2.5
60%
+3.1pp
37%
Over 2.5
40%
-3.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.5pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sibenik v Osijek — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sibenik EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Osijek EU Bookmakers 45%
-9% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -15%
1.09/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.32
-34% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -32%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
278 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 73%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
17.5 Crosses 18.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0

Sibenik vs Osijek Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sibenik
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Osijek
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.93 xG 1.55
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
224 Passes 373
69% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.01.2025 Osijek Osijek 2-2 HT 2-1 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
19.10.2024 Sibenik Sibenik 1-3 HT 1-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
04.08.2024 Osijek Osijek 1-2 HT 0-1 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
19.05.2023 Sibenik Sibenik 1-4 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
18.03.2023 Osijek Osijek 0-0 HT 0-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
13.11.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 0-2 HT 0-2 Osijek Osijek HIR

Sibenik 4-1 Osijek — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sibenik
4-1
AWAY Osijek
2.02 xG 0.79
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 5
198 Passes 347
70% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sibenik vs Osijek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sibenik swept aside Osijek 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (29% / 33% / 38%) promised a tight game; Sibenik found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sibenik had 38% of the ball to Osijek's 62%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 2.02 to 0.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osijek led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sibenik and 2.00 for Osijek.

What was the final score of Sibenik vs Osijek?

Sibenik 4-1 Osijek in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sibenik vs Osijek?

Before kick-off our model rated an Osijek win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sibenik 29%, draw 33%, Osijek 38%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Osijek) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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