Smiltene 5-1 Riga FC II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
4.13
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
64%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
Over 2.5
58%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.5
No
50%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
5%
X/2
21%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
35%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
15%
Home Win
21%
-6.3pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.1pp
65%
Away Win
58%
+6.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
62%
-12.9pp
50%
BTTS No
38%
+12.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smiltene EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Riga FC II EU Bookmakers 62%
-31% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
0.48/1.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.39/0.89
-42% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +97% / +32%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
279 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smiltene
0W-0D-4L
AWAY Riga FC II
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 4.50
02.11.2024 Smiltene Smiltene 0-3 Riga FC II Riga FC II LET1
20.07.2024 Riga FC II Riga FC II 5-1 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
22.10.2023 Smiltene Smiltene 0-7 HT 0-4 Riga FC II Riga FC II LET1
01.07.2023 Riga FC II Riga FC II 3-0 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
POST-MATCH Smiltene vs Riga FC II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smiltene cruised past Riga FC II 5-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Riga FC II at 65% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Riga FC II led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Smiltene and 4.50 for Riga FC II.

What was the final score of Smiltene vs Riga FC II?

Smiltene 5-1 Riga FC II in the Latvia - 1st Division on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smiltene vs Riga FC II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Riga FC II win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Smiltene 15%, draw 21%, Riga FC II 65%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Riga FC II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Riga FC II) ✓ Over 2.5
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