Derby County vs Stoke City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Derby County v Stoke City — Team-Based Signals
Derby County vs Stoke City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Derby County 2-0 Stoke City — Actual Match Statistics
Derby County had too much for Stoke City 2-0. It stood 0-0 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.
As we said in the preview, our model had Derby County as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 52%, coin-flips both.
By the numbers, possession split 52% to 48% in Derby County's favour, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 2.39 to 0.42.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.50 a game for Derby County against 1.17 for Stoke City.
Derby County vs Stoke City Result & Final Score
Derby County 2-0 Stoke City in the England - Championship on 06/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Derby County vs Stoke City Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Derby County 54%, draw 21%, Stoke City 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derby County) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.