Stoke City vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities
Stoke City v Derby County — Team-Based Signals
Stoke City vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Stoke City 3-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics
Stoke City got the better of Derby County 3-1. It stood 0-0 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.
The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had Stoke City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
By the numbers, possession split 68% to 32% in Stoke City's favour, shots finished 12-3, expected goals 1.09 to 0.39.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.83 a game for Stoke City against 1.33 for Derby County.
Stoke City vs Derby County Result & Final Score
Stoke City 3-1 Derby County in the England - Championship on 09/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Stoke City vs Derby County Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Stoke City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Stoke City 46%, draw 25%, Derby County 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stoke City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.