FS Jelgava vs Super Nova Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
FS Jelgava v Super Nova — Team-Based Signals
FS Jelgava vs Super Nova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-0
FS Jelgava
LET
FS Jelgava 1-0 Super Nova — Actual Match Statistics
FS Jelgava edged past Super Nova 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had FS Jelgava as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, FS Jelgava had 62% of the ball to Super Nova's 38%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.69 to 0.44 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold FS Jelgava's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FS Jelgava had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FS Jelgava and 0.67 for Super Nova.
What was the final score of FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?
FS Jelgava 1-0 Super Nova in the Latvia - Virsliga on 06/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?
Before kick-off our model rated a FS Jelgava win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split FS Jelgava 42%, draw 28%, Super Nova 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FS Jelgava), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.