FS Jelgava 1-0 Super Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 6 May 2026

📅06/05/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.74
Over 2.5
49%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.6pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.2pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Super Nova EU Bookmakers 33%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
0.87/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.29
-33% / +59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
361 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 77%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
21.6 Crosses 21.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FS Jelgava
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Super Nova
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.21 xG 0.92
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
288 Passes 305
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.03.2026 Super Nova Super Nova 1-1 HT 0-1 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
04.10.2025 Super Nova Super Nova 1-1 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
20.07.2025 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 1-0 HT 1-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
21.05.2025 Super Nova Super Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
05.04.2025 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-1 HT 1-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
01.10.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 1-1 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FS Jelgava
1-0
AWAY Super Nova
1.69 xG 0.44
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
376 Passes 204
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
36 Box Touches 20
31 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FS Jelgava vs Super Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FS Jelgava edged past Super Nova 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had FS Jelgava as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, FS Jelgava had 62% of the ball to Super Nova's 38%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.69 to 0.44 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold FS Jelgava's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FS Jelgava had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FS Jelgava and 0.67 for Super Nova.

What was the final score of FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?

FS Jelgava 1-0 Super Nova in the Latvia - Virsliga on 06/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a FS Jelgava win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split FS Jelgava 42%, draw 28%, Super Nova 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FS Jelgava), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FS Jelgava) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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