San Diego 3-4 Houston Dynamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 6 Jul 2025

📅06/07/2025 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
29%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
2.21
Over
44%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.66
No
55%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
32%
4.29
2-3
39%
1.87
4-5
19%
2.81
6+
10%
7.96
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.29 — our 32% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.04
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.5
X/1
15%
4.34
X/2
7%
10.5
X/X
16%
6.18
2/1
5%
20.6
2/2
17%
7.88
2/X
6%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
44%
Home Win
58%
-13.9pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.8pp
29%
Away Win
20%
+9.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
41%
+14.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
59%
-14.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-11.7pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Diego The Market 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Houston Dynamo The Market 23%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +12%
1.98/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.59
+2% / +59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
410 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 81%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
15.8 Crosses 14.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Diego
3-4
AWAY Houston Dynamo
1.67 xG 1.62
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
527 Passes 359
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
37 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH San Diego vs Houston Dynamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Houston Dynamo squeezed past San Diego 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was San Diego at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, San Diego had 59% of the ball to Houston Dynamo's 41%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.67 to 1.62.

What was the final score of San Diego vs Houston Dynamo?

San Diego 3-4 Houston Dynamo in the USA - Major League on 06/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Diego vs Houston Dynamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Diego win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split San Diego 44%, draw 27%, Houston Dynamo 29%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (San Diego) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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