Nashville SC 1-0 Philadelphia Union — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 6 Jul 2025

📅06/07/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.46
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.21
6+ Goals
10%
11.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 27% vs market 22.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.6
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
11%
4.66
X/2
10%
7.88
X/X
12%
5.11
2/1
8%
23.3
2/2
14%
5.83
2/X
7%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-4.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.7pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nashville SC EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -1%
1.76/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.38
+14% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
338 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 80%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
19.6 Crosses 18.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nashville SC
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Philadelphia Union
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.65 xG 1.95
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
310 Passes 280
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2025 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-3 HT 1-2 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
21.07.2024 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 3-0 HT 2-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
07.04.2024 Nashville SC Nashville SC 1-2 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
08.10.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 0-0 HT 0-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
13.07.2023 Nashville SC Nashville SC 0-2 HT 0-1 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
01.05.2022 Nashville SC Nashville SC 1-1 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nashville SC
1-0
AWAY Philadelphia Union
2.48 xG 1.20
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
275 Passes 281
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nashville SC squeezed past Philadelphia Union 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Nashville SC as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Nashville SC had 50% of the ball to Philadelphia Union's 50%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 2.48 to 1.20 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Nashville SC's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Nashville SC and 1.50 for Philadelphia Union.

What was the final score of Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?

Nashville SC 1-0 Philadelphia Union in the USA - Major League on 06/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nashville SC win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Nashville SC 44%, draw 26%, Philadelphia Union 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nashville SC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nashville SC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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