Philadelphia Union 1-3 Nashville SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 16 Mar 2025

Philadelphia Union
1-3 HT 1-2
Nashville SC
📅16/03/2025 · 🕒21:25 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
USA - Major League – 2025

Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.37
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.18
6+ Goals
12%
11.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.54
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
17%
4.56
X/2
10%
7.87
X/X
12%
5.01
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
23.0
2/2
11%
5.86
2/X
7%
14.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.0 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-1.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Philadelphia Union v Nashville SC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Nashville SC EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.84/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.21
+6% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +42%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
349 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 78%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
19.3 Crosses 16.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8

Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Philadelphia Union
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Nashville SC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.99 xG 1.52
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
290 Passes 342
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.07.2024 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 3-0 HT 2-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
07.04.2024 Nashville SC Nashville SC 1-2 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
08.10.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 0-0 HT 0-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
13.07.2023 Nashville SC Nashville SC 0-2 HT 0-1 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
01.05.2022 Nashville SC Nashville SC 1-1 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
29.11.2021 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-1 HT 1-1 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD

Philadelphia Union 1-3 Nashville SC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Philadelphia Union
1-3
AWAY Nashville SC
2.03 xG 1.75
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
341 Passes 204
77% Pass Accuracy 70%
16 Box Touches 21
29 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nashville SC got the better of Philadelphia Union 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Philadelphia Union at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Philadelphia Union had 61% of the ball to Nashville SC's 39%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 2.03 to 1.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Philadelphia Union and 0.50 for Nashville SC.

What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC?

Philadelphia Union 1-3 Nashville SC in the USA - Major League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 48%, draw 26%, Nashville SC 26%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Philadelphia Union) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✓ Over 2.5
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