Nashville SC 1-2 Philadelphia Union — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 7 Apr 2024

Nashville SC
1-2 HT 1-0
Philadelphia Union
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.46
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
38%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.01
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.88
6+ Goals
10%
17.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.88 — our 24% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.68
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
10%
12.75
X/1
10%
5.43
X/2
16%
5.75
X/X
12%
4.19
2/1
9%
30.0
2/2
15%
4.0
2/X
8%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
37%
-5.5pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.1pp
38%
Away Win
34%
+4.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.3pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nashville SC v Philadelphia Union — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nashville SC EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -17%
0.95/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.29
-38% / +75% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
360 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 80%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
17.8 Crosses 18.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6

Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nashville SC
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Philadelphia Union
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.18 xG 1.35
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
367 Passes 343
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.10.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 0-0 HT 0-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
13.07.2023 Nashville SC Nashville SC 0-2 HT 0-1 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
01.05.2022 Nashville SC Nashville SC 1-1 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
29.11.2021 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-1 HT 1-1 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
24.10.2021 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-0 HT 1-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
04.07.2021 Nashville SC Nashville SC 1-0 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD

Nashville SC 1-2 Philadelphia Union — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nashville SC
1-2
AWAY Philadelphia Union
1.73 xG 1.93
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
266 Passes 249
73% Pass Accuracy 69%
19 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Philadelphia Union squeezed past Nashville SC 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (32% / 30% / 38%) promised a tight game; Philadelphia Union found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Nashville SC had 51% of the ball to Philadelphia Union's 49%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.73 to 1.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Nashville SC and 0.83 for Philadelphia Union.

What was the final score of Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?

Nashville SC 1-2 Philadelphia Union in the USA - Major League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?

Before kick-off our model rated an Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nashville SC 32%, draw 30%, Philadelphia Union 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Philadelphia Union), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✓ BTTS Yes
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